NAS100 faces triple danger cocktail :: InvestMacro

• NAS100 ↑ 11% MTD, not too long ago touching ATH
• Tesla ↑ 5% MTD forward of earnings on Tuesday 22^nd April
• US-Iran two-week ceasefire deadline expires April 21
• US retail gross sales sparked strikes of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over previous yr
• Technical ranges: 27000, 26500, 26000

The week forward is full of top-tier knowledge releases, quarterly earnings from the world’s largest corporations and key geopolitical developments.

Traders might be monitoring the looming deadline of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, Tesla earnings and US retail gross sales amongst different heavy hitting studies:

Monday, twentieth April

• CNY: China mortgage prime charges
• CAD: Inflation Charge YoY

Tuesday, twenty first April

•  EUR: Germany ZEW Financial Sentiment Index
• GBP: Unemployment Charge
• NAS100: US retail gross sales MoM
• The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is ready to run out 

Wednesday, twenty second April

• EUR: Eurozone client confidence, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail gross sales
• GBP: UK Inflation Charge YoY
• NAS100: Tesla earnings

Thursday, twenty third April

• EU50: Eurozone S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash
• UK100: S&P World Manufacturing PMI Flash
• TWN: Taiwan industrial manufacturing, unemployment
• NAS100: US preliminary jobless claims; S&P World manufacturing, providers PMI

Friday, twenty fourth April

• JPY: Inflation Charge YoY
• CAD: Canada retail gross sales
• GBP: Retail Gross sales MoM
• EUR: German Ifo Enterprise Local weather
• NAS100: US College of Michigan client sentiment

The highlight shines on FXTM’s NAS100 which has rebounded 16% from its 2026 low. 

Be aware: FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying Nasdaq 100 index

Not too long ago, US equities have been buoyed by hopes that the US and Iran will safe a everlasting ceasefire. This has propelled each the NAS100 and US500 to recent all-time highs!

Listed below are 4 components that might set off important value swings:  

1)     US-Iran truce deadline

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is ready to run out on Tuesday April 21^st at day’s finish.

But markets stay hopeful over each side extending the truce – which might pave the way in which for a everlasting ceasefire settlement. Regardless of Trump putting an optimistic tone, markets are more likely to stay guarded and extremely delicate to any recent developments.

• World sentiment might obtain a lift if the truce is prolonged with hopes of an prolonged ceasefire supporting the NAS100.
• Ought to the deadline expire and end in renewed battle, this will hit danger belongings just like the NAS100.

2)     Tesla Q1 earnings

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks posting strong earnings. US fairness markets may very well be injected with recent volatility when massive tech corporations report their outcomes.

One of many world’s largest EV producers with a market cap of over $1.46 trillion will publish its Q1 outcomes on April 22^nd  after US markets shut.

Tesla shares have had a tough yr to date, down nearly 15% YTD. Deliveries already got here in beneath expectations – totaling 358,023 automobiles in Q1 2026, marking a 14.3% decline from the earlier quarter however a 6.2% enhance year-over-year.

Markets are forecasting a 3.1% transfer, both Up or Down, for Tesla shares put up earnings which make up roughly 4% of the NAS100 weight.

3)     US retail gross sales

A string of key US knowledge together with the newest US retail gross sales report might present recent insights into the well being of the US financial system.

Given how this knowledge might affect Fed minimize expectations, this might imply recent volatility for the NAS100 which stays delicate to rates of interest.

Be aware: US retail gross sales sparked strikes of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 0.5% over previous yr

Be aware: Merchants are at present pricing a 35% probability that the Fed cuts charges in 2026.

4)     Technical forces

The NAS100 is firmly bullish on the every day charts, not too long ago hitting recent all-time highs past 26300. Nevertheless, the RSI signifies that costs are closely overbought.

• A strong breakout above 26500 might set off an incline towards 27000.
• Weak spot beneath 26500 might open the doorways towards 26000 and 25800.