By Andrew Muhammad, College of Tennessee and Adam Taylor, College of Tennessee
Lumber, particularly softwood lumber like pine and spruce, is crucial to U.S. residence development. Its availability and worth straight have an effect on housing prices and broader financial exercise within the constructing sector. The U.S. imports about 40% of the softwood lumber the nation makes use of annually, greater than 80% of that from Canada.
President Donald Trump says that the U.S. has the capability to fulfill 95% of softwood lumber demand and directed federal officers to replace insurance policies and regulatory tips to increase home timber harvesting and curb the arrival of international lumber.
On Sept. 29, 2025, he introduced new tariffs on imported timber and wooden merchandise, together with a further 10% tariff on Canadian lumber. These had been added to 35% tariffs imposed on Canadian lumber in August. It was the most recent section in a long-standing dispute over the provision of lumber to builders within the U.S., which dates again to the Nineteen Eighties, when U.S. producers started arguing that Canadian firms had been benefiting from unfair subsidies from their authorities. Beginning on Oct. 15, Canadian softwood lumber imports may face tariffs exceeding 45%.
As researchers finding out the forestry sector and worldwide commerce, we acknowledge that the U.S. has ample forest sources. However changing imports with home lumber isn’t so simple as it sounds.
There are variations in tree species and high quality, and U.S. lumber usually comes at a better value, even with tariffs on imports. Challenges like restricted labor and manufacturing capability require long-term investments, which non permanent tariffs and unsure commerce insurance policies usually fail to encourage. As well as, the quantity of lumber imported tends to reflect the boom-and-bust cycles of housing development, a dynamic that tariffs alone are unlikely to alter.
Trump’s strikes
To spice up U.S. logging, in March, Trump issued an government order telling the departments of Inside and Agriculture to ease what he known as “heavy-handed” laws on timber harvesting. The chief order and a follow-up memo from Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins don’t spell out specifics, however officers say extra particulars are within the works that may simplify the timber harvesting course of, with the purpose of boosting home timber manufacturing by 25%.
That very same month, Trump ordered the Commerce Division to evaluate how imports of timber, lumber and associated wooden merchandise have an effect on U.S. nationwide safety.
Whereas that evaluation was underway, in July, the Commerce Division revealed findings from a commerce overview of 2023 Canadian lumber imports. That inquiry alleged that Canadian firms had been promoting lumber to the U.S. at unfairly low costs, probably leaving U.S. producers with decrease gross sales or depressed costs. That discovering was cited as the premise for the 35% August tariff announcement.
In its nationwide safety investigation initiated in March, the Commerce Division concluded that an overreliance on imported wooden merchandise means “the US could also be unable to fulfill calls for for wooden merchandise which might be essential to the nationwide protection and important infrastructure.” The September tariff announcement is predicated on these findings.
Canadian lumber within the US market
In 1991, the U.S. imported 11.5 billion board ft (27 million cubic meters) of Canadian lumber. These imports rose to a excessive of twenty-two billion board ft (52 million cubic meters) by 2005.
However as housing development declined – particularly in the course of the Nice Recession from 2007 to 2009 – imports dropped sharply, to lower than 8.4 billion board ft (20 million cubic meters) in 2009. The present quantity has not recovered to prerecession ranges, rising solely to 12 billion board ft (28 million cubic meters) in 2024.
The worth of Canadian lumber has additionally fluctuated. Traditionally, costs for Canadian lumber have averaged about US$330 per thousand board ft ($140 per cubic meter). Throughout and after the COVID-19 pandemic, import costs soared to virtually $800 per thousand board ft ($340 per cubic meter). However since peaking in 2021 and 2022, costs have dropped considerably to $436 per thousand board ft ($185 per cubic meter) by 2024.
In complete, in 2024, the U.S. imported greater than $11 billion in forest and wooden merchandise from Canada. Softwood lumber accounted for nearly half of that.
Lumber and housing
As private revenue rises and populations develop, individuals search to construct new properties. As new residence development – known as “housing begins” in financial knowledge – will increase, so does demand for softwood lumber to construct these properties. And when housing begins gradual, so does lumber demand.
For example, housing begins fell in the course of the Nice Recession. They declined from a January 2006 peak of two.3 million to lower than 500,000 in January 2009 – a lower of almost 80%. In that very same interval, imports of Canadian lumber fell by greater than 60%. Home softwood lumber manufacturing fell by greater than 40%.
Each home and imported lumber costs can straight affect the general value of constructing properties, which in flip impacts housing affordability. That stated, lumber used for framing normally accounts for lower than 10% of the entire value to construct a brand new residence. The results of tariffs on new residence development could also be considerably lower than different components, equivalent to rising labor prices.
A matter of alternative
The U.S. has a number of potential lumber obtainable. Particularly within the South, the stock of harvestable lumber has grown considerably over a few years.
Nonetheless, the varieties of wooden obtainable within the U.S. will not be at all times the identical as what’s obtainable from Canadian imports. For framing, contractors could choose spruce, northern pines and fir, naturally plentiful in Canada, as a result of they’re lighter and fewer more likely to warp than southern yellow pine, which is plentiful within the southern U.S. Southern yellow pine is extra generally used to make utility poles and preservative-treated lumber for out of doors development tasks, equivalent to decks.
Lumber from Idaho, japanese Oregon and japanese Washington, nevertheless, does share traits with Canadian species and will take the place of a minimum of some Canadian lumber.
Because the Trump administration seeks to spice up home lumber, patrons can be trying not solely at the place their lumber got here from, however what it prices and what sort of lumber is greatest for what they should accomplish.
Concerning the Authors:
Andrew Muhammad, Professor of Agriculture and Useful resource Economics, College of Tennessee and Adam Taylor, Professor of Pure Sources, College of Tennessee
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