Main markets ended the week with a cautious, barely risk-off tone. The minutes of the newest FOMC assembly confirmed that US central financial institution policymakers stay divided on whether or not one other fee lower on the December assembly is warranted. The dialogue is unfolding in opposition to a backdrop of comparatively secure macro knowledge: the November business-activity surveys affirm continued enlargement within the US financial system, whereas euro space indicators stay above the 50.0 mark, though they proceed to replicate weak spot within the manufacturing sector. In consequence, by late November the scenario will be characterised as regular however uneven world financial development.
📈 EUR/USD
Towards this backdrop, EUR/USD completed Friday at 1.1513 after spending the week in a 1.1490–1.1624 vary. On 21 November the pair briefly rose above 1.1550, however stronger-than-expected US business-activity knowledge and US Treasury yields pushed it decrease. In consequence, the US greenback gained greater than 100 factors over the week. The expansion and yield differential stays reasonably beneficial for the greenback. The 1.1480-1.1500 space now represents the closest help zone. A decisive break under it could open the best way towards 1.1380-1.1400 and enhance the chance of a deeper pullback towards the degrees of this spring. The primary sturdy resistance is situated within the 1.1620–1.1655 zone, adopted by 1.1720-1.1730. A break above these ranges would counsel a resumption of the pair’s long-term advance towards the 1.2000-1.2200 area.
🟠 BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues to say no quickly. On Friday it fell to 80,540, and after setting a brand new all-time excessive at 126,310 has misplaced greater than 35% in simply six weeks. Stress has intensified resulting from pressured liquidations of margin longs, profit-taking, diminished threat urge for food and expectations of much less aggressive Fed easing. Flows into BTC ETFs have slowed or turned damaging as traders transfer into the greenback and high-quality bonds. The closest help lies within the 75,000-80,000 zone; a break under it could open the best way towards the consolidation vary of spring–autumn 2024 at 53,000-75,000. Overhead, the closest sturdy resistance is at 92,000–95,000, and solely a sustained rise above 99,000-105,000 would revive hopes for a return to a bullish development.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude futures declined over the week from 63.85 to 61.88 {dollars} per barrel, comparable to the low of 30 Could. Stress stems from ample provide and rising US inventories. Technically, Brent continues to be buying and selling throughout the descending channel of late October–November. Sellers are at the moment lively close to 64.00-66.00, which is the closest resistance. Patrons re-emerge across the 60.00-61.00 help space. The subsequent help zone under 60.00, at 58.00-59.00, corresponds to the lows of March–April this yr.
🏆 XAU/USD
Gold stays in a consolidation part, buying and selling across the 4,000-dollar Pivot Level. This behaviour highlights that, not like the falling bitcoin, the metallic serves as a real retailer of worth reasonably than a short-term speculative instrument. This week the XAU/USD pair closed at 4,066, protecting the earlier situation intact. If the greenback strengthens additional, one other decline towards 3,885-3,900 can’t be dominated out. A fall under 3,625 would negate the bullish situation and open the best way towards 3,250-3,430. An increase above 4,250 would affirm the resumption of the bullish rally.
📊 Conclusion
The week of 24-28 November can be pushed by key US knowledge releases and Fed communication. Markets are awaiting the US Q3 GDP revision (26 November), private earnings, spending and PCE knowledge (27 November), in addition to housing-market reviews and consumer-confidence indicators (25-27 November). These releases will assist assess the chance of a December fee lower and the anticipated tempo of financial easing in 2026. The baseline situation: for EUR/USD, BTC/USD and Brent – impartial with a reasonable bearish bias. For gold – a buy-the-dip bias whereas XAU/USD stays above roughly 3,900 {dollars}.
