Fed Minutes in Focus :: InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Division

EURUSD is shifting easily downward and has touched 1.1840. Traders are getting ready for the discharge of key US statistics that might have an effect on expectations for the Fed’s future coverage.

The main focus is on the minutes of the final Fed assembly, a preliminary estimate of GDP, and the PCE core inflation index. The latter is a key coverage gauge for the regulator.

The greenback got here underneath strain final week following softer inflation knowledge, which elevated expectations of charge easing within the second half of the 12 months. Nevertheless, a powerful labour market report – exhibiting the very best employment development in additional than a 12 months and an surprising decline in unemployment – pointed to the resilience of the financial system.

The market is now pricing within the first charge reduce in June. General, round 62 foundation factors of easing are anticipated for 2026, corresponding to 2 25 bp reductions and roughly a 50% chance of a 3rd step.

Technical Evaluation

On the H4 time-frame, EURUSD is consolidating after pulling again from January highs. The vary has expanded, however the value is steadily shifting in the direction of its decrease restrict. The important thing degree stands at 1.1835, an intermediate assist inside the wider vary of 1.1765–1.2000. If it holds, sideways motion with makes an attempt to right upward is more likely to persist. A break beneath 1.1835 would open the way in which to 1.1765. A return above 1.1890–1.1900 would ease bearish strain and return the pair to the center of the vary.

Quick-term downward strain stays on the H1 chart for EURUSD. The worth constantly varieties decrease highs and lows, buying and selling close to the underside of the Bollinger Bands. The center line acts as dynamic resistance.

The Stochastic oscillator is within the oversold zone, which permits for native rebounds, however the MACD stays in damaging territory – momentum continues to be on the aspect of sellers. The closest assist is at 1.1835. Securing beneath it will intensify the decline in the direction of 1.1810–1.1800. Resistance stands at 1.1860–1.1870.

Conclusion

In abstract, EURUSD stays underneath regular promoting strain as markets await pivotal US knowledge that may form Fed expectations. The pair is testing crucial assist at 1.1835, with technical indicators confirming bearish momentum regardless of oversold situations. The basic image is combined: softer inflation factors to eventual Fed easing, however strong employment knowledge complicates the timeline. The near-term course hinges solely on in the present day’s releases. A break beneath 1.1835 would seemingly speed up losses in the direction of 1.1765, whereas a rebound above 1.1890–1.1900 may sign a brief respite. Till then, the trail of least resistance stays decrease.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based mostly on the writer’s explicit opinion. This evaluation might not be handled as buying and selling recommendation. RoboForex bears no accountability for buying and selling outcomes based mostly on buying and selling suggestions and opinions contained herein.