In my dialog with Tom Bodrovics, I outlined why right now’s market atmosphere is displaying a number of late-cycle warning indicators which have traditionally preceded main resets. We’re seeing extremes throughout gold and silver, housing, industrial metals, cash market balances, U.S. debt, deficit spending, and family leverage, alongside a surge in trillion-dollar non-public valuations tied to firms like SpaceX and OpenAI.
When capital concentrates into slender themes and optimism reaches these ranges, it typically alerts a market peak quite than long-term stability. Power in valuable metals additionally displays declining confidence in monetary techniques, a sample that appeared forward of each the tech bubble and the 2007 monetary disaster.
From a technical perspective, I give attention to value motion quite than headlines or predictions. I don’t try to select tops or bottoms, as a substitute I comply with confirmed developments and use instruments resembling Fibonacci retracements to handle threat and establish potential pullbacks. The present atmosphere underscores the significance of an outlined framework and understanding market cycles, notably for traders nearing or already in retirement.
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The matters David and I mentioned embrace:
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