- The AUD/USD weekly forecast stays bullish amid greenback weak spot.
- Fed repricing with greater odds of a price minimize and tender macro knowledge weakened the buck.
- Commodity costs and China-linked danger flows supported the Aussie.
The AUD/USD value closed the week close to mid-0.6500, marking 1.45% positive aspects final week, led by broad US greenback weak spot and agency commodity sentiment.
What occurred with AUD/USD final week
The dominant theme was speedy Fed repricing final week. Markets ramped up wagers that the Federal Reserve will start easing in its December assembly, weighing on the US yields and denting the US greenback, which acted as a headwind for the Aussie. Based on the CME FedWatch Software, the likelihood of a 25-bps price minimize by the Fed is now close to 87%.
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Commodity costs and China-linked danger flows additionally supported this development. Iron ore and base steel stability supported the time period construction for the Aussie, whereas Asian equities remained resilient, sustaining a constructive danger urge for food.
On the home entrance, Australian knowledge remained blended, with client spending exhibiting pressure, whereas the labor market remained comparatively resilient, leaving the RBA in a affected person and data-dependent stance. The RBA’s impartial tone capped the Aussie’s power. The uptick within the pair was primarily attributed to the softness of the buck fairly than Australia’s home macroeconomic pivot.
The US knowledge, together with Sturdy Items Orders, Chicago PMI, and Retail Gross sales, confirmed weak spot, whereas Fed members additionally left dovish remarks, cementing the chances of aggressive easing in 2026 as nicely. Liquidity remained skinny into the US Thanksgiving vacation, and the CME outage triggered intraday volatility.
AUD/USD Key Occasions Subsequent Week
The next week’s path is dependent upon three variables:
- Australian GDP
- US knowledge (PMIs and Core PCE) and Fed converse
- Danger sentiment, relying on China and commodity momentum
Within the occasion of a Fed shock, shifting away from easing, the AUD/USD might see a resumption of the draw back. Nonetheless, the trail of least resistance lies on the upside.
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Consumers Eyeing 0.6700 Above 200-DMA
The AUD/USD day by day chart reveals constant help by the 200-day MA. Nonetheless, the value stays inside a broad vary of 0.6400 to 0.6600. The transfer above 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs suggests a strong case for the upside. In the meantime, the RSI can be heading north at 56.00.
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The bulls might finally intention for the 0.6700 degree, which is the swing excessive for September. Conversely, dropping down, the pair might take a look at the 200-day MA close to 0.6465. Transferring beneath the extent might take a look at the demand zone at 0.6370-0.6420.
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