The bulls had an opportunity to defang the bearishness hinted at by a sudden and pretty sharp reversal from a pair weeks again. They even did so for some time. However, when push got here to shove later within the week, it was the bears doing the entire shoving once more to go away shares within the crimson for a second week in a row.
And but, it’s nonetheless not just like the market is just too far gone to salvage and rekindle the bigger-picture uptrend. It’s skating on skinny ice to make sure. However, the bulls nonetheless have an opportunity.
The scary half? Not even the long-awaited reopening of the federal authorities impressed the bulls. If something they “bought the information.”
We’ll have a look at all of it intimately in a second. The very first thing we wish to do is have a look at what little financial information we really obtained final week, and preview the mountain of financial knowledge that’s possible going to be dropped this week.
Financial Information Evaluation
The federal authorities shutdown could also be formally over, however it’s not up-and-running again at full pace simply but. We didn’t get October’s inflation report, as an illustration. We must always get these numbers (together with September’s) someday within the week forward. All we will do proper now’s present you the place we final left off, though we will add that economists are anticipating client inflation charges to carry at simply above 3.0% for the still-missing knowledge.
Shopper, Producer Inflation Charges
Supply: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation
What little we did get is on the grid.
Financial Information Report Calendar
Supply: Briefing.com, TradeStation
This week goes to be a busy gained, not simply due to the regularly-scheduled stuff, but additionally as a result of so many authorities businesses are possible going to dump all of their overdue reviews with little to no warning. We’ll cowl that as finest we will when the time comes, however for now we’ll solely preview what’s really on the schedule, starting with Tuesday’s capability utilization and industrial productiveness replace for October. You’ll see each have been lower than thrilling of late.
Capability Utilization and Industrial Productiveness Index Charts
Supply: Federal Reserve, TradeStation
Search for final month’s housing begins and constructing permits knowledge on Wednesday. Don’t, nonetheless, search for any turnaround from both anemic and even downright-bearish knowledge set.
Housing Begins and Constructing Permits Charts
Supply: Census Bureau, TradeStation
On Thursday we’re anticipated to listen to September’s payroll progress and unemployment price knowledge from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the job cuts introduced since we final heard any of this info (for August, in September), it’s unlikely we’ll see any significant progress. We would see some continued deterioration. (Any progress, in fact, has the potential to jolt the market increased.)
Payroll Development and Unemployment Charges Charts
Supply: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation
Additionally on Thursday search for October’s present residence gross sales figures… numbers we’ve nonetheless been getting from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors even when we’ve not been listening to from the Census Bureau about new-home gross sales. Search for gross sales of present houses to stay tepid.
New, Current Dwelling Gross sales Charts
Supply: Census Bureau, Nationwide Assn. of Realtors, TradeStation
New residence gross sales may be up to date subsequent week. Whether or not or not it’s, we don’t count on August’s surge to be repeated.
Lastly, on Friday we’ll hear from the College of Michigan about its third and remaining have a look at client sentiment for November; we gained’t get the Convention Board’s quantity till subsequent week. Sentiment in fact stays fairly awful, and understandably so.
Shopper Confidence Charts
Supply: Convention Board, College of Michigan, TradeStation
Simply keep in mind that not all of those launch dates are etched in stone, with most authorities businesses nonetheless scrambling to get again within the workplace and get again to work. Additionally keep in mind that we might — and sure will, in some circumstances — get two months’ price of information concurrently. Buckle up.
Inventory Market Index Evaluation
This week’s evaluation begins with a have a look at the weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite… an uncommon start line, however the correct one this time round because it so successfully tells the “greater image” story we will then body the main points round. As you’ll be able to see, the stumble upon the higher boundary of the long-term channel we noticed two weeks in the past (circled) did find yourself which means one thing. Though the index did spend a while on optimistic territory final week, when all was stated and achieved the bulls weren’t prepared to stay bullish because the buying and selling week got here to a detailed. The composite fell about 0.5% final week, which isn’t brutal, however is telling.
NASDAQ Composite Weekly Chart, with MACD and VXN 
Supply: TradeNavigator
It isn’t catastrophic to make sure. Because the weekly chart of the NASDAQ above additionally exhibits us, the index seems to be discovering help at its 50-day shifting common line (purple), and nonetheless hasn’t damaged under the straight-line help (dashed, yellow) that’s proper in the course of the rising buying and selling vary that’s been in place since 2023. You’ll additionally discover that the NASDAQ’s volatility index (VXN) as soon as once more examined a horizontal ceiling round 28.5 (marked with a crimson arrow) with out really hurdling it. It is a signal that the bears could not fairly be able to decide to pushing the market over the cliff, so to talk.
The day by day chart of the NASDAQ Composite under provides some element to the dialogue. As you’ll be able to see, the index did briefly dip beneath its 50-day shifting common line (purple) at 22,835 on Friday, however finally managed to battle its means again above it.
NASDAQ Composite Day by day Chart, with Quantity and VXN
Supply: TradeNavigator
The day by day chart of the S&P 500 did the identical, as you’ll be able to see. Actually, the S&P 500 recovered nicely sufficient on Friday to go away the index with the slightest of beneficial properties for the week. Just like the NASDAQ Composite although, there’s no denying the load of the massive runup from April’s low is now making it more durable so as to add extra beneficial properties, whereas making it simpler to tug shares decrease. The S&P 500 is discovering much less and fewer help…
S&P 500 Day by day Chart, with Quantity and VIX 
Supply: TradeNavigator
… one thing that’s much more evident with the weekly chart. The weekly chart, in fact, additionally verifies there’s a reasonably necessary technical help line (purple, dashed) that’s nonetheless nicely intact. Just like the NASDAQ although, the S&P 500 is getting ready to falling into extra critical, less-manageable bother. Specifically, the S&P 500’s volatility index (VIX) stays getting ready to punching above its technical celling at 23.5 (crimson, dashed), which might possible occur across the identical time the S&P 500 falls beneath its present help line… if it does so. A bearish cross of the MACD strains — which is clearly taking form — will seal the deal.
S&P 500 Weekly Chart, with MACD and VIX 
Supply: TradeNavigator
Sit tight in the intervening time. The difficult half right here is the time of yr. This stretch tends to be bullish, bouncing from the September swoon that normally bleeds into October. We clearly didn’t get that this yr, which make issues difficult to navigate now. We solely know a correction is overdue. We simply don’t know when it’s really going to occur. It’s actually not taking place but, even when it is only one or two dangerous days away from beginning.
Conversely, there’s not quite a lot of upside potential right here irrespective of the way you slice it.