The bulls had an opportunity to defang the bearishness hinted at by a sudden and pretty sharp reversal from a pair weeks again. They even did so for some time. However, when push got here to shove later within the week, it was the bears doing all the shoving once more to depart shares within the pink for a second week in a row.
And but, it’s nonetheless not just like the market is simply too far gone to salvage and rekindle the bigger-picture uptrend. It’s skating on skinny ice to make certain. However, the bulls nonetheless have an opportunity.
The scary half? Not even the long-awaited reopening of the federal authorities impressed the bulls. If something they “offered the information.”
We’ll have a look at all of it intimately in a second. The very first thing we wish to do is have a look at what little financial information we really bought final week, and preview the mountain of financial information that’s probably going to be dropped this week.
Financial Information Evaluation
The federal authorities shutdown could also be formally over, but it surely’s not up-and-running again at full velocity simply but. We didn’t get October’s inflation report, as an illustration. We should always get these numbers (together with September’s) someday within the week forward. All we will do proper now’s present you the place we final left off, though we will add that economists are anticipating client inflation charges to carry at simply above 3.0% for the still-missing information.
Shopper, Producer Inflation Charges
Supply: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation
What little we did get is on the grid.
Financial Information Report Calendar
Supply: Briefing.com, TradeStation
This week goes to be a busy gained, not simply due to the regularly-scheduled stuff, but additionally as a result of so many authorities businesses are probably going to dump all of their overdue experiences with little to no warning. We’ll cowl that as finest we will when the time comes, however for now we’ll solely preview what’s really on the schedule, starting with Tuesday’s capability utilization and industrial productiveness replace for October. You’ll see each have been lower than thrilling of late.
Capability Utilization and Industrial Productiveness Index Charts
Supply: Federal Reserve, TradeStation
Search for final month’s housing begins and constructing permits information on Wednesday. Don’t, nevertheless, search for any turnaround from both anemic and even downright-bearish information set.
Housing Begins and Constructing Permits Charts
Supply: Census Bureau, TradeStation
On Thursday we’re anticipated to listen to September’s payroll progress and unemployment price information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Given the job cuts introduced since we final heard any of this info (for August, in September), it’s unlikely we’ll see any significant progress. We would see some continued deterioration. (Any progress, after all, has the potential to jolt the market larger.)
Payroll Development and Unemployment Charges Charts
Supply: Bureau of Labor Statistics, TradeStation
Additionally on Thursday search for October’s present dwelling gross sales figures… numbers we’ve nonetheless been getting from the Nationwide Affiliation of Realtors even when we’ve not been listening to from the Census Bureau about new-home gross sales. Search for gross sales of present properties to stay tepid.
New, Present Residence Gross sales Charts
Supply: Census Bureau, Nationwide Assn. of Realtors, TradeStation
New dwelling gross sales is perhaps up to date subsequent week. Whether or not or not it’s, we don’t count on August’s surge to be repeated.
Lastly, on Friday we’ll hear from the College of Michigan about its third and ultimate have a look at client sentiment for November; we gained’t get the Convention Board’s quantity till subsequent week. Sentiment after all stays fairly awful, and understandably so.
Shopper Confidence Charts
Supply: Convention Board, College of Michigan, TradeStation
Simply keep in mind that not all of those launch dates are etched in stone, with most authorities businesses nonetheless scrambling to get again within the workplace and get again to work. Additionally keep in mind that we might — and certain will, in some circumstances — get two months’ value of knowledge concurrently. Buckle up.
Inventory Market Index Evaluation
This week’s evaluation begins with a have a look at the weekly chart of the NASDAQ Composite… an uncommon start line, however the best one this time round because it so successfully tells the “greater image” story we will then body the main points round. As you may see, the stumble upon the higher boundary of the long-term channel we noticed two weeks in the past (circled) did find yourself which means one thing. Though the index did spend a while on optimistic territory final week, when all was mentioned and performed the bulls weren’t keen to stay bullish because the buying and selling week got here to an in depth. The composite fell about 0.5% final week, which isn’t brutal, however is telling.
NASDAQ Composite Weekly Chart, with MACD and VXN 
Supply: TradeNavigator
It isn’t catastrophic to make certain. Because the weekly chart of the NASDAQ above additionally reveals us, the index seems to be discovering assist at its 50-day transferring common line (purple), and nonetheless hasn’t damaged beneath the straight-line assist (dashed, yellow) that’s proper in the course of the rising buying and selling vary that’s been in place since 2023. You’ll additionally discover that the NASDAQ’s volatility index (VXN) as soon as once more examined a horizontal ceiling round 28.5 (marked with a pink arrow) with out really hurdling it. This can be a signal that the bears might not fairly be able to decide to pushing the market over the cliff, so to talk.
The day by day chart of the NASDAQ Composite beneath provides some element to the dialogue. As you may see, the index did briefly dip beneath its 50-day transferring common line (purple) at 22,835 on Friday, however finally managed to battle its approach again above it.
NASDAQ Composite Each day Chart, with Quantity and VXN
Supply: TradeNavigator
The day by day chart of the S&P 500 did the identical, as you may see. In truth, the S&P 500 recovered nicely sufficient on Friday to depart the index with the slightest of positive aspects for the week. Just like the NASDAQ Composite although, there’s no denying the burden of the large runup from April’s low is now making it harder so as to add extra positive aspects, whereas making it simpler to tug shares decrease. The S&P 500 is discovering much less and fewer assist…
S&P 500 Each day Chart, with Quantity and VIX 
Supply: TradeNavigator
… one thing that’s much more evident with the weekly chart. The weekly chart, after all, additionally verifies there’s a reasonably essential technical assist line (purple, dashed) that’s nonetheless nicely intact. Just like the NASDAQ although, the S&P 500 is on the point of falling into extra critical, less-manageable hassle. Specifically, the S&P 500’s volatility index (VIX) stays on the point of punching above its technical celling at 23.5 (pink, dashed), which might probably occur across the identical time the S&P 500 falls beneath its present assist line… if it does so. A bearish cross of the MACD traces — which is clearly taking form — will seal the deal.
S&P 500 Weekly Chart, with MACD and VIX 
Supply: TradeNavigator
Sit tight in the intervening time. The tough half right here is the time of yr. This stretch tends to be bullish, bouncing from the September swoon that normally bleeds into October. We clearly didn’t get that this yr, which make issues tough to navigate now. We solely know a correction is overdue. We simply don’t know when it’s really going to occur. It’s definitely not taking place but, even when it is only one or two unhealthy days away from beginning.
Conversely, there’s not a number of upside potential right here regardless of the way you slice it.