Australian greenback merchants are bracing for some volatility tomorrow because the Reserve Financial institution of Australia delivers its newest price resolution. The timing, as at all times, provides just a little drama: the announcement lands simply half-hour earlier than the Melbourne Cup, with the press convention following shortly after, maintaining market contributors glued to screens whereas the remainder of the nation tunes in for the race.
The futures market is pricing in an 85% likelihood that the RBA will depart charges on maintain at 3.60%, regardless of final week’s inflation knowledge coming in hotter than anticipated. Consideration will now flip to the ahead steering in each the assertion and the press convention—any shift from earlier indications, significantly within the context of the latest CPI print, may set off significant strikes within the Aussie.
Technically, the AUD has been range-bound between 0.6400 and 0.6600 in latest months and is buying and selling close to the midpoint of that band. With longer-term help and resistance ranges tightening, merchants are on the lookout for a decisive break. The upside seems to be favoured if the RBA maintains a extra hawkish tone into year-end and the beginning of subsequent yr.
Resistance 2: 0.6688 – September Excessive
Resistance 1: 0.6663 – Trendline Resistance
Help 1: 0.6486 – Trendline Help
Help 2: 0.6438 – October Low
