The Russell 2000 is up 1.0% today to a record high and it’s leading US major averages.

The index is heavy on financials, industrials and consumer discretionary, which means it’s a much better barometer of the underlying US economy than the tech-heavy Nasdaq or (increasingly) S&P 500.

There was a major double top in the index in 2022 and 2024 that foreshadowed the the 28% decline the culminated in late March. Since then though, the index has been steadily and quickly climbing. It’s now broken out and it’s a pretty picture.

The drop was a false breakdown and the measured target is 3000-3150, which is as much as 25% from here. For the broader economy, it points to a cyclical recovery; something that’s been brewing with the USD reacceleration trade. It would likely come with the Fed potentially pushing back on the 100 bps of easing priced in over the coming year.

The risks is that he index trades at 18.5 forward earnings which is historically rich

A big catalyst for the Russell 2000 would be if the US Supreme Court began to block Trump’s tariffs.

The USDCAD has seen down and up price action today with the pair 1st moving above its 200 day moving average early in the session at 1.3960. The price failed on that break, leading to a rotation back to the downside, only to find support buyers against the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line on the chart below) currently at 1.3944.

Finding buyers there, led to buyers reentering and a rotation back to the upside with the price extending back above the 200 day moving average at 1.3960.

That 200 day MA is now the close barometer for both buyers and sellers.

• Staying above would give the buyers the go-ahead to push toward the next targets at 1.3978 and the high price from last week at 1.39854.Above that and the 38.2% of the 2025 trading range will be eyed at 1.40176. That was also near the high from back in May.
• Moving back below the 200 day MA with momentum, would be another failure, and could see the pair make another run the 100 hour MA.

For now, the buyers are making the play and keeping control. Can they keep the momentum going and have traders looking towardloftier levels?

Fundamental
Overview

The USD rise stalled last
week as the US government shutdown delayed many key US economic reports. The
dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to keep going, especially on the
labour market side, so any hiccup on that front is likely to keep weighing on
the greenback. The market pricing is now back to 46 bps of easing by year-end
and 112 bps by the end of 2026. This could still be too dovish, but we will
need strong data to reprice.

In the absence of the
government data, an October rate cut is now seen as a done deal. The reality is
that an October cut was never really in question. It’s the December cut that
could be priced out in case the data strengthens. We still have three NFP and
two CPI reports before the December meeting.

On the CHF side, the SNB
left interest rates steady and kept everything unchanged at the last meeting.
SNB’s President Schlegel didn’t offer any forward guidance but he did say that
the bar to cut rates further is very high and negative inflation prints in the
short-term won’t be enough.

The last Swiss inflation
prints rebounded a bit but there’s a long way to go before breaching their 2% inflation
limit. So, this leaves the CHF trading mostly based on the strength and
weakness of other currencies.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF is consolidating beneath the major trendline. The sellers continue to step in
around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back
into the 0.7871 level. The buyers, on the other hand, are targeting a breakout
to extend the rally into the 0.81 handle next.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action at the trendline. Given the lack
of catalysts, we might continue to have such a choppy trading around the trendline
with high risks of fakeouts. If we get a bigger pullback from the trendline,
the sellers will likely target the 0.7910 level where we can expect the
dip-buyers to step in.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s nothing we can add here as the choppy price action doesn’t offer clear levels where to lean onto. The sellers will likely keep on stepping in around these levels with a defined risk above the recent highs to target new lows, while the buyers will look for breaks above the recent highs to extend the rally into the 0.81 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

On Thursday we have Fed Chair Powell speaking and the US Jobless
Claims (if the shutdown is lifted). On Friday, we conclude the week with the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

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The oil market is likely get some relief from the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137K barrels per day.

There were persistent reports and rumors last week that OPEC was considering raising 400-500k bpd to accelerate the wind down of the ‘voluntary’ phase of cuts. Instead, this pace stretches the return of barrels over the course of a year. The latest reports said Russia was pushing for a slower return of barrels while Saudi Arabia wanted to fight for market share.

Naturally, fewer barrels than expected is bullish for oil but the risk is that the market sees this move as a sign the crude market is over-supplied. Large inventories of oil-on-water are ominous for crude even before this latest output hike.

WTI crude last week slumped to the lowest since May as the large OPEC+ production increase rumors did the rounds.