By ForexTime
As one other busy yr within the monetary markets involves an finish our Senior Market Analyst Lukman Otunuga talks a take a look at the most important tales from 2025.
This overview covers the most important themes, key movers, the yr’s largest shocks, our forecast scorecard, and the teachings value taking into 2026.
All efficiency figures referenced are year-to-date as of sixteenth December 2025 until in any other case acknowledged.
Key takeaways
- USD’s grip slips on FX throne, down 9% year-to-date
- Oil ends 2025 with double-digit losses
- EU50 catches as much as pack, hitting contemporary all-time highs
- Learn on as we reveal the FXTM Awards: Greatest performing property of 2025!
What occurred to markets in 2025?
2025 was outlined by uncertainty as traders navigated Trump’s commerce struggle, financial coverage shifts, geopolitical threat and the AI guess.
These themes sparked monstrous ranges of volatility, sending tremors throughout the board. World shares have been positioned on a rollercoaster trip within the face of Trump’s commerce struggle earlier than surging because of the AI guess. Nvidia, feeding off this momentum, grew to become the primary firm ever to achieve a market cap of $5 trillion.
The Cboe volatility index noticed its largest ever one-day spike amid the tariff chaos. A shaky greenback supplied reduction to G10 currencies, whereas oil costs have been largely pressured by oversupply fears and indicators of tepid demand. Within the crypto area, bitcoin bulls did not ship as a result of large ETF outflows and rising sensitivity to macroeconomic forces. Valuable metals welcomed the chaos, with one even ending the yr with triple-digit good points!
Amid all these developments, there have been some standout market shockers:
“Liberation Day” tariffs in April
On 2nd April 2025, the Trump administration introduced a common 10% tariff on all imported items that may take impact on fifteenth April. This despatched shockwaves throughout world markets as international progress fears sparked a risk-off stampede. The S&P500 misplaced greater than 10% within the two days after the announcement.
Bitcoin flash crash throughout October
Bitcoin skilled a sudden flash crash on tenth October, wiping $12,000 from its worth in a matter of minutes – leading to an unprecedented $19 billion value of liquidations. This brutal selloff was sparked by Trump’s menace to impose a further 100% tariff on Chinese language items.
Longest US authorities shutdown in historical past
The US authorities shutdown on 1st October and didn’t reopen till thirteenth November.
Such an occasion created widespread disruptions, raised fears across the US financial outlook and threw everybody into the darkish. Markets are nonetheless struggling the implications with the October US jobs report by no means to be launched.
How did our 2025 predictions play out?
Regardless of all of the chaos and surprises, a few of our market predictions got here true.
12 months in the past, we picked 3 property that might serve up main alternatives for merchants and traders this yr.
Right here’s how they carried out:
1) Greenback loosens grip on FX throne
What we mentioned within the 2025 Outlook
Our greenback outlook was firmly bullish as a result of Trump’s “America First” insurance policies leading to slower Fed charge cuts, US exceptionalism and safe-haven demand.
How issues performed out
The USDInd didn’t see its finest yr in a decade. As a substitute costs weakened as Trump’s tariffs sparked issues over the US financial outlook.
After peaking in January, it was a slippery decline amid rising bets across the Fed slicing rates of interest within the face of slowing progress.
Considerations over the Fed’s independence, political uncertainty and threat urge for food favouring different currencies fuelled the USD’s decline. The longest US authorities shutdown in historical past rubbed salt into the wound.
At the beginning of the yr, markets have been solely anticipating the Fed to chop charges twice in 2025. We noticed three charge cuts as a substitute with additional cuts anticipated in 2026.
Technical overview
In our 2025 Outlook, we recommended “ought to costs slip underneath 105.50, bears could goal the 50-week SMA at 103.90, 102.70 and 100.00.”
All bearish worth targets have been reached.
USD Index down 9% YTD
2) Oil lingers close to 2025 lows
What we mentioned within the 2025 Outlook
Our outlook on oil was closely bearish because of Trump’s tariffs, international oversupply, OPEC+ output hikes, rising US shale manufacturing and still-elevated Fed charges.
How issues performed out
Oil costs ended 2025 roughly 15% decrease however nowhere close to the degrees seen in the course of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Costs have been hit by demand-side fears and oversupply issues as OPEC stored pumping manufacturing to reclaim misplaced market share.
In 2025, the cartel applied a collection of month-to-month manufacturing will increase beginning in April. These have been a part of a plan to regularly reverse earlier voluntary output cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Rising non-OPEC provide and better inventories contributed to the draw back.
If not for mounting geopolitical threat within the Center East and sanctions towards Russia, oil costs could have prolonged loss – buying and selling nearer to Covid-19 ranges.
Technical overview
We recommended that “a strong weekly shut beneath $70 could open a path towards $62, $50 and $37.”
Costs hit our first bearish worth targets earlier than bottoming out round $63.
Brent Oil down 16% YTD
3) EU performs catchup to hit all-time highs
What we mentioned within the 2025 Outlook
We have been firmly bullish on the EU50 as a result of expectations across the ECB slicing charges and easing geopolitical threat within the area.
How issues performed out
FXTM’s EU50 surged in 2025, gaining over 15% year-to-date.
These good points have been powered by decrease charges in Europe, sturdy earnings and a historic change to German authorities spending which noticed lots of of billions of euros on protection/infrastructure spending.
With extra authorities spending for Europe’s largest economic system, this boosted sentiment over the Eurozone’s financial outlook – supporting equities within the area.
Technical overview
We acknowledged that “a strong weekly shut above 5110 could open a path towards 5250 and the all-time excessive at 5522. Past this level, costs could enterprise towards 5632.”
The EU50 peaked at 5831 in 2025, fulfilling all our bullish worth targets.
EU50 up 17% YTD
FXTM Awards: Greatest performing property of 2025
Trying throughout the FXTM universe, these have been the perfect performing property we supplied in 2025!
- Crypto: Bitcoin Money ↑ 25% YTD
- Inventory Index: SPN35 ↑ 46% YTD
- Steel: XAGUSD (Silver) ↑ 120% YTD
- G10 forex: SEK (Swedish Krona) ↑ 20% YTD
Disclaimer: Information right as of sixteenth December 2025.
What classes can merchants study from 2025?
Volatility affords alternative no matter market course was one of many largest classes of 2025.
We went into the yr with a Trump-centric focus, bracing for his commerce struggle to throw international markets into chaos.
Trump definitely didn’t disappoint with the knock-on results impacting commodities, currencies, indices and cryptos.
However markets proved resilient with equities throughout the globe hitting data and on monitor for double-digit good points in 2025.
Metals additionally discovered their champion in silver, which gained 100% year-to-date amid provide constraints and charge reduce bets. Apparently bitcoin suffered from heavy institutional promoting and could possibly be on monitor for its first unfavourable yr since 2022.
We noticed the AI guess and expectations round decrease rates of interest assist international shares this yr, however the query is for a way lengthy?
What’s the outlook for 2026?
With issues nonetheless lingering round an AI bubble, tariffs beginning to chunk and geopolitical threat current, issues might boost in 2026.
And this implies one factor: extra volatility.
Get the within story on what to anticipate from markets subsequent yr with our 2026 Outlook, which is ready to be printed early January 2026.
Article by ForexTime
ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award successful worldwide on-line foreign exchange dealer regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com